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全球资本主义有救吗?

伦敦—经济焦虑的政治学现在让英国和美国选民陷入了民粹主义者之手。言下之意,但愿经济能回到比较“正常”的GDP和生产率增长率,更多人的生活能有所好转,反建制情绪能消退,政治也能回归“正常”。然后,资本主义、全球化和民主就能继续征程了。

但这样的思维是对历史的反常时期的外推。这一时期已经结束,维持它的力量不可能在短时间内再次聚集。目前,技术创新和人口都是增长逆风而不是顺风,金融工程也无法独挽狂澜。

这段历史反常时期是美国内战后的一百年间,在此期间,能源、电气化、通讯和交通方面的突破从根本上改变了社会。人类生产率显著提高,寿命预期大幅增加。全球人口在1800—1900年间增加了50%以上,此后50年再翻一番,尔经济增长率也比此前几百年快得多。

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