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SOS для государственных предприятий Китая

ПЕКИН – Замедление экономического роста в Китае стало предметом бесчисленных дебатов, дискуссий, статей и анализов. Хотя предлагаемые средства очень разнообразны, большинство, по всей видимости, согласно с тем, что болезнь имеет структурный характер. Но, хотя структурные проблемы, от уменьшения доходов с капитала до роста протекционизма после глобального экономического кризиса, безусловно, будут препятствовать росту, еще один фактор остался почти незамеченным: бизнес-цикл.

В течение многих десятилетий рост ВВП в экономике Китая неизменно выражался двузначным числом, и казалось, что она неуязвима для бизнес-циклов. Но это было не так: действительно, шестилетний спад, который Китай пережил после азиатского финансового кризиса 1997 года, был симптомом именно такого цикла.

Сегодня бизнес-цикл Китая привел к накоплению неработающих кредитов (НРК) в корпоративном секторе, как это уже было в начале века. В то время как ставка по проблемным кредитам, согласно официальным данным, ниже 2%, многие экономисты считают, что на самом деле она ближе к 3-5%. Если они правы, проблемные кредиты могут составить до 6-7% от ВВП Китая.

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