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中国国有企业告急

Sep 22, 2016 Yao Yang

北京—以中国经济减速为主题的争论、讨论、文章和分析数不胜数。各人提出的方案不尽相同，但似乎都有一个广泛的共识，即中国经济病在结构。结构性问题——从资本回报递减到全球经济危机以来保护主义日盛——固然对增长起到了拖累作用，但另外一个因素几乎没有人注意到：商业周期。

几十年来，中国经济保持两位数GDP增长，似乎丝毫不受商业周期影响。但中国经济毕竟不能“免俗”：事实上，1997年亚洲金融危机后中国经历了为期六年的放缓，这正是商业周期的症候。

如今，中国商业周期导致公司不良贷款累积，一如世界之交时的情况。据官方数据，不良贷款率不到2%，但许多经济学家估算实际可能高达3—5%。如果他们的估算正确，不练贷款占中国GDP比重可能高达6—7%。

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neo- confucius Oct 23, 2016

article
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stephan Edwards Sep 23, 2016

Keeping the SOEs afloat is more about social stability then finance. If you a locations if the SOEs start the financially wise moves the Unemployment rates in those locations go through the roof and these are not people your going to train to write apps for Iphones. Unemployed peasants in large numbers might not be amenable to control.
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Godfree Roberts Sep 23, 2016

'China’s economic slowdown'?
Dear God. China's economy hasn't slowed down. It has speeded up.
As in 'accelerated'. That's what the 6.5% figure measures: acceleration.
Not growth.
To calculate China's GDP growth, multiply its rate of acceleration by its last known GDP which, according to the CIA, was $19,510,000,000 in 2015.
Multiply that by 6.5% and you get its growth for 2016: $1,268,000,000,000. One trillion two hundred sixty eight billion.
And guess what? That's twice as much as it grew ten years ago. (Constant population. Constant dollars).
China's growth rate has doubled in the past decade and will double in the next decade. Because it's accelerating.
Because arithmetic.
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Val Samonis Sep 22, 2016

The very important re-enforcing effect globally will be Deutsche Bank collapse by 2017; it will dwarf Lehman Bros collapse in 2008; and will ruin the Eurozone!
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中国国有企业告急

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