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中国国有企业告急

北京—以中国经济减速为主题的争论、讨论、文章和分析数不胜数。各人提出的方案不尽相同,但似乎都有一个广泛的共识,即中国经济病在结构。结构性问题——从资本回报递减到全球经济危机以来保护主义日盛——固然对增长起到了拖累作用,但另外一个因素几乎没有人注意到:商业周期。

几十年来,中国经济保持两位数GDP增长,似乎丝毫不受商业周期影响。但中国经济毕竟不能“免俗”:事实上,1997年亚洲金融危机后中国经历了为期六年的放缓,这正是商业周期的症候。

如今,中国商业周期导致公司不良贷款累积,一如世界之交时的情况。据官方数据,不良贷款率不到2%,但许多经济学家估算实际可能高达3—5%。如果他们的估算正确,不练贷款占中国GDP比重可能高达6—7%。

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