Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

Шоковая терапия в Саудовской Аравии

БЕЙРУТ – Саудовская Аравия уже давно полагается на нефть как на источник роста экономики и развития страны. В прошлом году на долю нефти пришлось около 75% валютной выручки королевства и примерно 90% доходов госбюджета. Однако недавнее падение цен на нефть сделало очевидным то, что уже давно было пора понять:  Саудовской Аравии, как и другим богатым нефтью странам Ближнего Востока, необходима диверсифицированная модель развития.

С тех пор как в середине 2014 года нефтяные цены начали своё падение, Саудовская Аравия столкнулась с резким спадом темпов роста ВВП, сокращением ликвидности и снижением объёмов кредитования. Профицит бюджета и счёта текущих операций сменились дефицитом; ожидается, что в этом году дефицит достигнет 13% и 6,4% ВВП соответственно.

Кроме того, несмотря на прежние успехи экономики, размеры реального национального богатства королевства снижаются. Нефтяные доходы, как и в других странах региона, не были эффективно конвертированы в человеческий капитал, инфраструктуру и инновационные мощности, необходимые для роста производительности и диверсификации экономической деятельности. В итоге, помимо адаптации к «новой норме» нефтяных цен, Саудовская Аравия должна разработать радикально новую экономическую модель, которая устранит структурные препятствия на пути производительности и роста.

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