Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

La terapia d’urto dell’Arabia Saudita

BEIRUT – Per molto tempo l’Arabia Saudita ha basato la propria crescita e il proprio sviluppo economico sul petrolio. L’anno scorso, circa tre quarti del valore complessivo delle esportazioni del paese, così come il 90 percento delle entrate statali, è stato generato dal petrolio. Ma il recente crollo dei prezzi del greggio ha messo in luce un aspetto che avrebbe dovuto emergere già tempo fa: l’Arabia Saudita, come gli altri paesi del Medio Oriente ricchi di petrolio e gas, ha bisogno di un modello di sviluppo più diversificato.      

Da quando, verso la metà del 2014, i prezzi del petrolio hanno cominciato a scendere, l’Arabia Saudita ha registrato un drastico calo nella crescita del Pil, nonché un rallentamento della crescita della liquidità e del credito. Gli avanzi di bilancio e delle partite correnti si sono trasformati in deficit che, stando alle previsioni, quest’anno raggiungeranno rispettivamente il 13 e il 6,4 percento del Pil.

Inoltre, malgrado la crescita passata, la ricchezza reale del paese è diminuita. Come è avvenuto in altre zone della regione, le entrate generate dal petrolio non sono state efficacemente tradotte in capitale umano, infrastrutture e capacità innovativa, elementi necessari per generare crescita della produttività e diversificare l’attività economica. Perciò, oltre ad adeguarsi alla “nuova normalità” sul fronte dei prezzi del petrolio, l’Arabia Saudita deve ideare un modello economico completamente nuovo in grado di superare gli ostacoli strutturali alla produttività e alla crescita.   

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