Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

Arab Saudi dan Shock Therapy yang Dialami

BEIRUT – Sejak dahulu Arab Saudi bergantung pada minyak untuk menggerakkan roda pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pembangunan. Tahun lalu, pendapatan dari minyak menyumbangkan tiga-perempat total pemasukan dari ekspor dan sekitar 90% pendapatan negara. Akan tetapi merosotnya harga minyak baru-baru ini menunjukkan pertanda jelas: Arab Saudi, seperti negara-negara lain di Timur Tengah yang kaya atas minyak bumi dan gas alam, perlu memperkenalkan suatu model pembangunan yang lebih beragam.

Sejak harga minyak jatuh pada pertengahan tahun 2014, laju pertumbuhan PDB di Arab Saudi mengalami penurunan tajam, sama halnya dengan pertumbuhan kredit dan tingkat likuiditas. Surplus anggaran dan surplus transaksi berjalan berubah menjadi defisit. Tahun ini, defisit diperkirakan mencapai 13% defisit anggaran dan 6.4% defisit transaksi berjalan dari PDB.

Selain itu, meski berjaya di tahun-tahun sebelumnya, pendapatan asli negara Kerajaan Saudi telah surut. Sebagaimana dialami negara-negara lain di Timur Tengah, pendapatan dari minyak tidak dialihkan secara tepat menjadi human capital, infrastruktur, dan kapasitas berinovasi yang merupakan prasyarat terciptanya pertumbuhan produktivitas dan diversifikasi ekonomi. Jadi, di samping mengupayakan penyesuaian terhadap “new normal” yang berlaku terhadap harga minyak, Arab Saudi harus merancang suatu model perekonomian yang mendobrak dan mengatasi hambatan-hambatan struktural yang mengekang produktivitas dan pertumbuhan.

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