Politics

Les dangereux jeux de guerre du prince saoudien

Nov 17, 2017 Shlomo Ben-Ami

TEL AVIV – Plusieurs développements politiques étonnants en provenance d'Arabie saoudite sont venus troubler un Moyen-Orient déjà instable. Une nouvelle grande guerre est-elle en vue ?

L'ambitieux prince héritier de l'Arabie saoudite de 32 ans, le prince Mohammed ben Salman (communément désigné par ses initiales, MBS), qui supervise une transformation historique (et déstabilisatrice) de l'économie du Royaume, a ordonné l'arrestation de plusieurs des plus puissants princes et hauts-fonctionnaires du pays. Le coup, présenté comme une campagne anti-corruption, est une manœuvre hardie visant à consolider le pouvoir.

Mais les ambitions de MBS s'étendent bien au-delà des frontières de son pays. Le même jour, le Premier ministre libanais Saad Hariri a annoncé sa démission dans une émission de télévision en direct de Riyadh, en accusant l'Iran de causer la « dévastation et le chaos » par son ingérence dans d'autres pays.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Amir Yagi Nov 20, 2017

I'd not believe the new prince on reform,
Even if we dismiss the news that this same ruling royal family under King Salman has planned to build hundreds of mosques in Bangladesh for a Billion dollars (later S. Arabia denied), other billions are still pouring in for the same cause worldwide, and the kingdom never had any internal pressure compelling to support the jihadist Syrian opposition, they did it for pure ideological reasons and right from the beginning when opposition militants where instructed to mingle with Syrian early protestors and shoot from hiding on Syrian government police..
the very nature of their disproportionate hatred and escalation of hostilities against Shia Muslims and Iran is anihilistic by default,
And what about Tunisia? is it predatory as Iran? Why does the Saudis hate the new Tunisia so much that they lobby in Washington and Europe for it's economic crisis not to be funded? Because it's secular and most importantly because it represents an Arab road map for a successful transition to democracy.
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Jaap Bosma Nov 19, 2017

Israel is the Middle Easts most aggressive state (ethnic cleansing in 1948, agressive wars in 1956, 1967, 1980, 2006 and devastation in Gaza in 2009 and 2014, colonising Palestinian land all the time)
Saudi Arabia is the worlds biggest supporter of an extreme version of sunni islam that has contributed a lot to the emergence of jihadism, and now it becomes more and more openly agressive, like in Jemen.
We have to stop both countries!
- P. Kamath Nov 21, 2017
  
  Jalap: In all wars you mentioned from 1948 to2006, Arab armies world-over wanted to decimate Israelis and drown them in Mediterranean Sea . So why shouldn't Israelis fight back ? Loss of any single war with neighbouring Arab states, means end of Israel. That is why Israelis have to hit hard to survive, for war is not a gentle man's game.
  - Jaap Bosma Nov 21, 2017
    
    Of course they wanted to decimate Israel (but I don't think they wanted to drown all Israelis, that's just demonisation of Arabs). Israel is an aggresive colonialist project that takes land from Arabs and reserves it for Jews. Are you surprised Arabs hate Israel?
    But that Arabs hate Israel does not mean that they started the ethnic cleansing of 1948, or the colonial wars of 1956, 1967, 1980 and 2006. Israel started those. Its the Arabs that fight back, not Israel. Israel is the colonialist state.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 18, 2017

Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, gives a highly insightful analysis on how his country is seeking to avoid an "all-out war" with Iran, incited by Saudi Arabia, because the Kingdom itself will not win a war fighting Iran, despite expensive high-tech weapons from the US.
Since King Salman appointed his favourite son, the 32-year old Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) as crown prince in June, removing his nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Saudi Arabia has been seeing an unprecedented shake up at home and an escalation of diplomatic tensions in the region. Teem with ambition and impatience, MBS is in a hurry to consolidate power. He ordered an arrest of the Kingdom's most powerful princes, businessmen and officials under the pretext of fighting corruption. His plan for rapid reforms would have been unthinkable in the past - he knows that Saudi Arabia needs to wean itself off the reliance on oil and diversify its economy. He also knows that the youth make up half of the population , and that they need to find jobs in the private sector, instead of relying on the state to create jobs.
The international community fears that the crown prince's strong anti-Iran stance and hegemonic ambition in the region might legitimise his "dangerous war games" that have Trump's backing. To confront Iran, MBS led a coalition of Gulf states to isolate Qatar for cooperating with Tehran. As defence minister, he seeks to drive Iran's influence out of Yemen and crush one of the poorest countries on earth during the two-year war there. Two weeks ago, he forced the Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad al-Hariri, to resign while on a visit to Riyadh, and blamed Iran and its ally, Hezbollah for making Lebanon ungovernable — and for a missile attack from Yemen. Hariri's resignation shook Lebanon, which had forged a fragile coexistence among Sunnis, Christians and Shiites after over two decades of civil war.
The author says Saudi Arabia "has already suffered from the farcical failure of its blockade on Qatar, not to mention its two disastrous attempts to stem Iranian advances in Syria and Yemen. " Despite his young age, MBS knows that "provoking Iran is probably not in Saudi Arabia’s best interests," because the Kingdom "cannot match Iran’s military might." As Israel and Saudi Arabia share the same interests in curbing Iran's clout in the region, MBS seeks "security cooperation with Israel," and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner is said to be playing a role.
Critics say Kusher has fueled the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Despite his close ties with Benjamin Netanyahu, the author says Israel has no appetite for a "full-scale war north of its border for Saudi Arabia’s sake." In the past, Israel had avoided being dragged into the war in Syria, other than launching airstrikes on targets that had links to Hezbollah, and protecting Syria’s Druze community, which is strongly related with the Israeli Druze. In 2012 Israel had also "frustrated Saudi Arabia’s expectations of an intervention" to attack Iran's nuclear installations.
The author says, Saudi Arabia would welcome a war between Israel and Hezbollah, as it would inevidently involve Iran. Since Assad has gained the upper hand in Syria thanks to Iran and Russia, "the Saudi-led Sunni axis is eager to compensate for its losses there, and thus is pushing Lebanon as the next battlefield." Although Israel would do the utmost to avoid fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon now, it has conducted the biggest military exercise ever and sent a clear message to Hezbollah that the third war it would wage on Israel could end in a disastrous defeat.
For the moment, Hezbollah, "drained by its costly effort to support Assad in Syria’s civil war, is not particularly eager to engage in a showdown with Israel now. Iran, for its part, has avoided disrupting Lebanon’s stability and always-precarious truce with Israel, in order to enable Hezbollah to focus on Syria." So an "all-out war" between Israel and Iran might not happen as MBS hoped. But stability in Lebanon is fragile, pitting Hezbollah’s pro-Syria and Iran camp against Hariri’s “March 14 Alliance” of Sunni, anti-Syrian groups.
The author says Hariri still hopes that his family's construction companies would "win lavish contracts for rebuilding Syria." So it was hardly in his "best interests" to destabilise Lebanon. He believes Hariri was held in Riyahd "against his will." What is alarming is that MBS "plays with fire" and that Trump has "offered him broad support, owing to his own animosity toward Iran and, perhaps, the hope that Saudi Arabia will support a US-led peace plan on Palestine." No wonder Netanyahu is no eager to dance to Trump's tune, as he has no desire to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
- M M Nov 18, 2017
  
  JVH, the irony is that the Saudis ....up unti now...were in the winning seat. If Hariri wins contracts in Syria, his Saudi backers would benefit, if Lebanon proceeds with developing and extracting oil off its shores, the Saudis would benefit (either through direct or indirect investments), if Lebanon prospers, the Saudi existing investments in the country would sky rocket, the Sunnis of Lebanon and the region (the power base of KSA) were looking up to Saudi Arabia, this is now being questioned big times, therefore their latest stunt is not only incomprehensible but bordering on.......
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M M Nov 18, 2017

KSA is in a transitory phase and like any transitory phase, mistakes or mishaps are bound to happen. Too many new players in KSA with high ambitions have acquired too much influence in a very short period of time (and I am not talking about MBS or his entourage). These people will learn from their mistakes or be pushed aside like their predecessors. The Hariri case was a tragic miscalculation by all concerned and a dangerous advanturalism that could have blown out of all proportions. Thankfully "Tintin" (meaning the body protecting the French Interests) came to the rescue. The British FCO, should also be commended for their role and the position they adopted from the outset, especially since they had very little to gain from this whole saga. The EU Commission on the other hand, which was about to become the main loser had it exploded in the Lebanon, by the EU being flooded by not thousands but tens of millions of refugees, were totally quiet or oblivious as usual. Regarding BiBi, he is only rhetoric, Israel has no appetite for any war, there is no money for any war as the Arms-Dealer In-Chief discovered early in his presidency. Hizbollah cannot be disarmed, especially when everyone else, from the US citizens, to the tribes in KSA and across the Middle East are all permitted to own and carry weapons. So a word of caution "When one starts interfering in the internal affairs of another country one will find one self very quickly on a slippery slope!".....
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Steve Hurst Nov 17, 2017

'While Israel is not interested in waging all-out war'
A somewhat bizarre statement, is some sort of dance being proposed where maneuvers occur and then a brief curtsey and retreat until the music starts again. I am not sure Sun Tzu would understand this, who decides on the music, and who knows they are supposed to curtsey. Is Saturday alright for fighting?

'...the “many shared interests” between the two countries'.
I can't from this distance see much in common other than a dislike of another party, Not enough for a marriage of convenience surely.

'...the Syrian conflict has starkly demonstrated, wars usually defeat their own purposes' The Syrian conflict has all the hallmarks of a Proxy action so unfortunately presumably can be considered to meet the Proxy needs or it would have ceased before this date, it has needed fueling
- Marc Laventurier Nov 20, 2017
  
  " Is Saturday alright for fighting?" Sure. Friday also.
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