Oil in Saudi Arabia Reza/Getty Images

Il percorso di riforma dell’Arabia Saudita

BEIRUT – A quasi due anni dall’inizio del precipitoso calo dei prezzi petroliferi, i maggiori produttori globali devono affrontare la prospettiva di importanti adeguamenti che avranno conseguenze economiche, sociali e politiche di ampio respiro. Da un lato tali adeguamenti rappresenteranno sicuramente delle grandi sfide, soprattutto per i Paesi a medio reddito come l’Arabia Saudita, che non dispone dei massicci fondi sovrani di cui ad esempio si avvalgono gli Emirati Arabi Uniti, ma dall’altro forniscono a questi stessi Paesi un’occasione importante: valutare modalità più produttive per organizzare la società.

Sembra che l’Arabia Saudita abbia accettato la sfida. Questa settimana ha pubblicato il piano Vision 2030 per garantire una crescita sostenibile a lungo termine. Il piano è stato sia osannato che criticato perché ambizioso, come esemplificato dall’obiettivo di trasformare il regno nella 15a economia più grande del mondo nei prossimi due decenni – un’economia caratterizzata da una forza lavoro qualificata, da mercati aperti e da una buona governance. Un percorso chiave che intende intraprendere l’Arabia Saudita è la diversificazione del portafoglio di asset, vendendo le quote del gigante petrolifero statale Aramco per creare un fondo sovrano.

Ma Vision 2030 trascura una questione cruciale: la scarsa partecipazione della forza lavoro. Solo il 41% della popolazione attiva lavora attualmente, rispetto alla media del 60% dei Paesi Ocse.

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