Oil in Saudi Arabia Reza/Getty Images

沙特阿拉伯的改革路径

贝鲁特—石油价格暴跌近两年后,主要全球生产国正面临重大调整,这些调整将产生深远的经济、社会和政治后果。这些挑战固然极具挑战性——特别是对沙特阿拉伯这样的缺乏(比如)阿联酋的大规模财富基金的中等收入国家而言——但也给这些国家带来了重要的机会考虑效率更高的组织社会的方式。

沙特阿拉伯似乎已经接受了这一挑战。本周,沙特发布了《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)计划以确保长期增长。该计划的雄心毁誉参半,比如,它提出沙特王国在未来二十年内成为世界第15大经济体的目标,并让高技能劳动力、开放的市场和良好的治理成为沙特经济的特色。沙特阿拉伯实现这一点的一个关键方法是资产组合多样化,出售国有石油巨头阿美公司(Aramco)股份以成立主权财富基金。

但《愿景2030》没有解决一个关键问题:低劳动力参与度。目前只有41%的工作年龄人口有工作,而经合组织的平均水平为60%。而用工作的也主要是在人事臃肿的公共机构上班。这是沙特经济最大的无效率之处,而解决这个问题要比解决其他所有问题都更加困难。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/ChKB7jH/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now