Der saudische Traum

IRVING, TEXAS – Saudi Arabien will alles: die OPEC retten, Einkommensdiversifizierung und Industrialisierung spwie seine Marktanteile auf dem Rohölmarkt, dem Markt für Mineralölprodukte, Petrochemikalien und Erdgaskondensate behalten. Ob den Saudis dies gelingt, hängt größtenteils von der Schiefer-Energiegewinnung in den USA ab.

Die Schieferrevolution in den USA hat die OPEC-Mitglieder nach der Qualität ihres Rohöls gespalten. Exporteure von leichtem, süßem Rohöl wie Algerien, Angola und Nigeria, haben fast ihren gesamten Marktanteil in den USA verloren, während Exporteure von saurem oder schwerem Rohöl wie Saudi Arabien und Kuwait nur wenig verloren haben.

Denn fast das gesamte Öl, das von den Golfstaaten gefördert wird, ist sauer und fast der gesamte globale Überschuss ist süß. Daher würden Förderkürzungen Saudi Arabiens und seiner Nachbarn die Preise nicht weiter nach oben treiben und den Ölmarkt wieder ins Gleichgewicht bringen. Die einzige Möglichkeit, dies zu erreichen, ohne dass die OPEC auseinanderbricht, wäre eine Reduzierung der Fördermengen von leichtem, süßem Rohöl, auch von US-Produzenten, die damit Marktanteile verlieren würden. Wenn dies geschieht, kann man davon ausgehen, dass die Preise relativ schnell wieder steigen.

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