Modern corporate building in Saudi Arabia

Das Königreich jenseits des Öls

RIAD – In den letzten Wochen war die Regierung von Saudi-Arabien mit einer beispiellosen strategischen Überprüfung ihrer Politik beschäftigt, die Auswirkungen auf alle Aspekte des dortigen sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Lebens haben könnte. Die vollständigen Details werden wahrscheinlich im Januar bekannt gegeben, aber bereits jetzt ist klar, dass das Königreich – die neunzehntgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt – einen dringenden Bedarf an umfassenden Reformen hat.

Dafür, dass Veränderungen dringend notwendig sind, gibt es zwei Gründe: Der erste ist der dramatische Fall des Ölpreises von etwa 100 Dollar pro Barrel Mitte 2014 auf unter 40 Dollar heute. Da 90% der Staatseinnahmen durch Ölexporte erwirtschaftet werden, ist der Druck auf die Finanzen des Landes erheblich. Nachdem 2013 noch ein leichter Haushaltsüberschuss erwirtschaftet wurde, gab es laut Prognosen des Internationalen Währungsfonds 2015 ein Defizit von über 21% des BIP.

Der zweite Grund ist demografischer Natur: In den nächsten fünfzehn Jahren kommen etwa sechs Millionen junge Saudis ins arbeitsfähige Alter, was den Arbeitsmarkt, dessen Größe sich verdoppeln könnte, enorm belasten wird.

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