Modern corporate building in Saudi Arabia

المملكة بعد النفط

الرياض ــ على مدار الأسابيع القليلة المنصرمة، كانت حكومة المملكة العربية السعودية منهمكة في مراجعة غير مسبوقة للسياسات الاستراتيجية، والتي قد تخلف تداعيات مؤثرة على كافة جوانب الحياة الاجتماعية والاقتصادية في البلاد. ومن المتوقع أن تُعلَن التفاصيل الكاملة في يناير/كانون الثاني، ولكن بات من الواضح بالفعل أن المملكة ــ الدولة صاحبة تاسع عشر أكبر اقتصاد على مستوى العالم ــ في احتياج شديد لإصلاح بعيد المدى.

وهناك سببان واضحان وراء إلحاح التغيير. الأول يتمثل في الانخفاض الحاد الذي سجلته أسعار النفط العالمية، من أكثر من 100 دولار للبرميل في منتصف عام 2014 إلى أقل من 40 دولاراً اليوم. ولأن الصادرات من النفط تمثل قرابة 90% من إيرادات الحكومة، كانت الضغوط على الموارد المالية للسعودية شديدة؛ فقد تحول الميزان المالي من الفائض الصغير في عام 2013 إلى عجز تجاوز 21% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي عام 2015، وذلك وفقاً لتقديرات صندوق النقد الدولي.

والسبب الثاني ديموغرافي (ما يتعلق بعلم دراسة السكان). ففي السنوات الخمس عشرة المقبلة، سوف يبلغ نحو ستة ملايين شاب سعودي سن العمل، وهو ما من شأنه أن يفرض ضغوطاً هائلة على سوق العمل وربما يضاعف حجمها.

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