saikal6_MOHAMMED HUWAISAFP via Getty Images_yemenwarsoldier

沙特王国的蹩脚也门战争

May 1, 2020 Amin Saikal

发自堪培拉—尽管已对也门实施了5年多的军事干预，但以沙特为首的联盟依然未能使该国免于分崩离析。由阿联酋撑腰的南部过渡委员会如今占据了要地亚丁港，更令沙特恼火的是该组织还宣布南部实施自治。但是这种已成事实的分治局面最终可能也无法缓解也门以及该地区的不稳定局势。

实际上也门已经分裂为三个领土实体。沙特支持的总统阿卜杜·拉布布·曼苏尔·哈迪（Abdu Rabbuh Mansour Hadi）政府如今处于流亡状态，而伊朗支持的胡塞武装组织则控制着另外两个，导致这场被称为“内战中的内战”的斗争变得旷日持久，也产生了深远的地缘战略影响。

冲突自2015年初以来就一直持续至今，当时由沙特和其他八个国家（包括阿联酋）组成的阿拉伯联盟发动了大规模军事干预，事件的策划者是现为沙特王国实际统治者的沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman），而其至关重要的支持者则是势力同样强大的穆罕默德·本·扎耶德（Mohammed bin Zayed），也是阿布扎比酋长国王储兼阿联酋武装部队副总司令。

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j. von Hettlingen May 4, 2020

Amin Saikal criticises Saudi Arabia’s aggressive and reckless policy in Yemen, which has de facto torn the country apart. It was once dubbed by the Romans as "Arabia Felix" – "Fortunate Arabia" – because of its lush valleys and rich agriculture. Since a Saudi-led nine-nation coalition began air strikes in March 2015, hoping to defeat the Houthi rebels, the already poorest country in the Arab world, with dwindling oil and water reserves, has been grappling with a humanitarian disaster, with its basic infrastructure shattered, and an economy grinding to a halt. Over 80% of the population is dependent on food aid.
Before 2015, Yemen was divided between Houthi rebels, forces loyal to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and forces loyal to the current president, Abdu Rabbuh Mansour Hadi backed by the Saudi-led coalition, and rival jihadists from both al-Qaeda and ISIS. In 2011, the Arab Spring protests plunged Yemen into turmoil. Worried that the protests could spill out of control or even beyond its borders, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates brokered a deal that saw Saleh – who had ruled North Yemen since 1978 and a united Yemen since 1990, so was able to retain the loyalty of much of the army and police – deposed and replaced by Hadi.
The Saudi-led coalition underestimated the former president. Instead of going gracefully into retirement, Saleh remained in Yemen, conspiring to ruin Hadi’s chances of success. In 2014, Saleh threw his support behind a rebellion by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, who controlled the air force and drove pro-government forces out of Aden. Taking almost full control of the city, the Houthis marched into the capital, Sanaa. By January 2015, the UN-recognised Hadi lost power and fled into exile in Saudi Arabia where he remains today. By March, the Houthis had taken over half the country – the whole of western Yemen, where the bulk of the population are concentrated.
The Saudis and their Gulf Arab allies saw this as an Iranian takeover, fearing that Tehran was about to seize control of Aden port and the strategic entrance to the Red Sea, through which thousands of ships pass each year. The Saudis saw their red line crossed and decided to act. In March 2015, they began a massive campaign of air strikes, targeting both the Houthi rebels and their backers, the units loyal to Saleh. The Saudis expected their overwhelming firepower to quickly drive the Houthis towards the negotiating table. Since then the Houthis have tightened their grip on Northern Yemen.
In December 2017 Saleh was killed by Houthi fighters, who suspected him of preparing to ally with the Saudi-led coalition. His death led to some coalescence of non-Houthi forces around the coalition of Hadi's government. But the anti-Houthi alliance was weak and has since fractured, with its coalition forces – Hadi loyalists, Southern separatists, pro-Islah party militias, and loyalists of the slain Saleh – turning their guns on each other.
The secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed group that has widespread support across southern Yemen, forced government forces out of its temporary capital of Aden in August 2019. This led to the worst fighting between anti-Houthi forces since the beginning of the war, while clashes spread across southern Yemen. It also led to increasingly apparent divisions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which supported the Hadi government and the STC, respectively.
These two sides have fought alongside each other over the past three years against the Houthis, but it has always seemed an uneasy alliance. Before the conflict, separatist sentiment had been running high in the south, which was an independent state – the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (1967 to 1990) – before unification with the North in 1990. The STC claims it strives for self-rule, but not socialism.
Although the separatists were suspicious of Hadi, who is a southerner but supports continued unity with the north, tensions between the two sides remained. The situation was made more complex by divisions within the Saudi-led coalition. Saudi Arabia backs Hadi, while the UAE – a key partner in the Saudi-led coalition – is closely aligned with the separatists. On April 26, the STC declared self-rule, breaking a peace deal signed in November with the internationally recognised Hadi-led government.
The Aden-based Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared a state of emergency, saying it would govern the port city and other southern provinces. The Saudi-backed government warned of "dangerous and catastrophic consequences". It highlights competing agendas between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has long been suspicious of Islamist elements in the Saudi-backed Hadi government. But the STC has also carefully courted the Saudis, especially since last year when the UAE pulled most of its own forces out of this messy conflict.
Emirati and Saudi officials want to contain the damage at a time when Riyadh has been working with the UN to find its own way out of its controversial war – with Trump’s backing – with the Houthis. The STC has long demanded a seat at the negotiating table to ensure "credible southern representation." In a highly complicated conflict, the secessionists were told by the Saudis to wait, because dealing with the Houthis had priority, in order to decimate Iranian influence in Yemen.
The author says: “Houthis now command a large chunk of Yemen along the Saudi border, and the STC has chipped away the South. Meanwhile, Hadi’s forces hold smaller areas, which must trouble not only MBS, but also Trump, who alleges that Iran is the source of all problems in the region and must be contained at all costs.” Indeed, the Saudis have been accused of being responsible for the looming partition of Yemen.
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Frank Tuijn May 3, 2020

It is noticeable that US led or sponsored armed forces seldom act effectively. The war to install Hadi as Saudi puppet in Yemen is an extreme case but look at the defeat of the US equipped and trained Iraqi army by IS which then had to be held back from Baghdad by Iran trained militants, the failed effort in Afghanistan, and many others.
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