Sarkozy y la tormenta perfecta del euro

Mientras más ataca el Presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy al Banco Central Europeo y al euro fuerte, más lo critican los medios de comunicación europeos, los ministros de finanzas de Europa, las autoridades de la Unión Europea y el BCE mismo. Los críticos tienen buenas razones. El motivo básico de la actual debilidad económica de Francia es su falta de competitividad incluso en otras economías de la eurozona donde el euro no es un factor.

Sin embargo, Sarkozy tiene la razón en un punto. Se está formando una "tormenta perfecta" en los mercados cambiarios que amenaza catapultar el euro a niveles que harían que hasta Alemania, el exportador más eficiente de la eurozona, quede incapacitado para competir en los mercados mundiales. Si los exportadores alemanes no pueden competir con un euro que está a 1,50 con respecto al dólar, ¿qué les queda a los exportadores franceses?

El euro está ganando terreno por varias razones. Un factor catalizador es el hecho de que la Reserva Federal está teniendo un radical cambio de opinión acerca de la solidez de la economía de Estados Unidos. Fred Bernanke, Presidente de la Fed, ahora está muy preocupado de que los problemas hipotecarios y del mercado de la vivienda en la economía local causen una recesión, a menos que se reduzcan drásticamente los tipos de interés... incluso si eso significa un cierto riesgo de que haya inflación.

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