Sarkozy et la tempête de l’Euro

Plus le président français Nicolas Sarkozy attaque la Banque centrale européenne et l’euro fort, plus il est critiqué dans les médias européens par les ministres des Finances européens, les responsables de l’Union européenne et la BCE elle-même. Ces critiques sont fondées. La raison fondamentale de la faiblesse économique actuelle de la France est son manque de compétitivité, même dans d’autres économies de la zone euro, où l’euro n’est pas un facteur entrant en ligne de compte.

Mais Sarkozy n’a pas tort. Les ingrédients d’une tempête sont en train d’être réunis sur le marché des changes, menaçant de catapulter l’euro à des niveaux qui rendra même l’Allemagne, l’exportateur le plus efficace de la zone euro, incapable de rivaliser sur les marchés mondiaux. Si les exportateurs allemands ne peuvent rivaliser à 1,5 euro le dollar, quelles sont les chances des exportateurs français?

L’euro gagne du terrain pour plusieurs raisons. L’un des facteurs qui a précipité le mouvement est que la Réserve fédérale a changé d’avis de façon spectaculaire au sujet de la solidité de l’économie américaine. Le président de la Fed, Ben Bernanke, s’inquiète aujourd’hui beaucoup que les problèmes de marché immobilier et de prêts hypothécaires ne provoquent une récession, à moins de réduire les taux d’intérêt de façon agressive, même si cela signifie prendre un certain risque avec l’inflation.

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