萨尔科奇和欧元的完美风暴

法国总统越是攻击欧洲央行和强势欧元,欧洲媒体、财长、欧盟官员以及欧洲央行本身就越是批评他。这些批评是对的。法国目前经济疲软背后的根本原因是其缺乏竞争力,即使是在其他欧元区国家也是如此,而在这些国家欧元并不是一个因素。

但是萨尔科奇还是有点道理。一场完美风暴正在外汇市场上形成。这一风暴威胁到把欧元升值到令即使欧元区最为具有效率的国家德国无法在世界市场竞争的水平。如果德国的出口商尚且无法在欧元对美元1.5的情况下竞争,那么,法国的出口商有会有多少机会呢?

欧元升值有多重原因。其中一个促发因素是美联储对于美国经济实力的看法发生巨变。美联储主席伯南克现在极为担忧,除非大幅度降息,否则,美国经济中的房地产市场以及房屋贷款中的问题将会导致经济衰退,即使降息意味着某些通货膨胀的风险。

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