Paul Lachine

¿Quienes tendrán déficits en el mundo?

SINGAPUR – Últimamente, todo el mundo parece querer tener superávits por cuenta corriente. China lleva mucho tiempo teniendo grandes superávits. La zona del euro los tiene ahora aún mayores, pues las oscilaciones en la Europa meridional están aumentando los superávits ya de antiguo de Alemania. De hecho, hay países –desde Singapur hasta Rusia– que están teniendo grandes superávits.

Entretanto, el décifit exterior de los Estados Unidos, que durante decenios ha contribuido a mantener los superávits en otros países, es ahora menor que antes de 2008, por lo que muchos economistas sostienen que nunca volverá a sus niveles anteriores (afirman que, en cualquier caso, el auge del gas de esquisto lo hace improbable). También los mercados financieros han revelado con claridad que la capacidad de otros países con grandes déficits, como el Brasil y la India, para absorber las corrientes de capitales está llegando a su límite. Como el mundo es un sistema cerrado, se plantea esta pregunta: ¿quiénes tendrán los déficits del mundo?

Los economistas ortodoxos creen que la economía mundial debe funcionar como un dispositivo mecánico equilibrado en el que los superávits y los déficits exteriores vayan haciéndose más uniformes con el tiempo, pero casi todos los períodos de expansión económica mundial se han caracterizado por desequilibrios simbióticos.

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