Paul Lachine

世界赤字将来自哪里?

新加坡—当前,似乎所有人都想要经常项目盈余。中国长期存在巨额盈余。欧元区目前的盈余甚至还要大,南欧的波动增加了德国长期存在的盈余。事实上,从新加坡到俄罗斯的各个国家也存在巨额盈余。

与此同时,美国的外部赤字——几十年来这笔赤字支撑着其他国家的盈余——比2008年有所减少,许多经济学家认为永远不会回到此前的峰值了(他们指出,页岩气景气使这成为不可能的事情)。金融市场也明确无误地显示出其他主要赤字国家,如巴西和印度吸收资本流的能力到达了极限。世界是一个封闭系统,因此这就造成了一个问题:谁来负责世界赤字?

主流经济学家认为全球经济应该是一个平衡的机械安排,外部盈余和赤字应该随时间的推移而平滑。但全球经济扩张期几乎总是伴随着失衡。

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