Russian Knights fighter jets Pavel Bednyakov/ZumaPress

La guerra de Rusia contra la economía de Ucrania

WASHINGTON, DC – La economía de Ucrania puede no encontrarse ya en caída libre, pero sigue teniendo problemas graves. Su PIB se contrajo un 6,8 por ciento en el año pasado y se prevé que se reduzca otro nueve por ciento en este año: una pérdida total del 16 por ciento, aproximadamente, en dos años. Aunque la situación parece, en cierta medida, estar estabilizándose –la depreciación del hryvnia ha eliminado su déficit por cuenta corriente y un ajuste fiscal en gran escala ha propiciado el equilibrio del saldo de caja en el segundo trimestre de este año–, sigue siendo precaria.

Las dificultades económicas primordiales de Ucrania no son de origen interno, sino consecuencia de la agresión rusa. El beligerante vecino oriental se ha anexionado a Crimea, ha subvencionado a los rebeldes de la Ucrania oriental, ha aplicado una guerra comercial, al interrumpir intermitentemente su suministro de gas natural, y amenaza con un ataque financiero. Hasta ahora, Ucrania ha logrado milagrosamente soportar esos asaltos con poco apoyo internacional, pero necesita asistencia urgentemente.

La anexión de Crimea por Rusia en marzo de 2014 arrebató a Ucrania el cuatro por ciento de su PIB. Desde entonces, las fuerzas armadas apoyadas por Rusia han ocupado territorios de la Ucrania oriental que representaron el diez por ciento de su PIB en 2013. Como la producción en la región de Donbas se ha desplomado un 70 por ciento desde entonces, el costo para Ucrania ha sido de un siete por ciento, aproximadamente, de su PIB de 2013.

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