Russian Knights fighter jets Pavel Bednyakov/ZumaPress

De Russische oorlog tegen de Oekraïense economie

WASHINGTON, DC – De Oekraïense economie mag dan niet meer in een vrije val verkeren, zij blijft het zwaar hebben. Het bbp (bruto binnenlands product) is vorig jaar met 6,8% gekrompen, en zal dit jaar naar verwachting nog eens met 9% krimpen – een totaalverlies van grofweg 16% in twee jaar. Hoewel de zaken tot op zekere hoogte lijken te stabiliseren – de devaluatie van de hryvnia heeft het tekort op de betalingsbalans van het land doen verdwijnen, en een enorme bezuinigingsoperatie heeft de Oekraïense begroting in het tweede kwartaal van dit jaar in evenwicht gebracht – blijft de situatie precair.

De grootste economische problemen waar Oekraïne voor staat zijn niet van binnenlandse herkomst, maar het gevolg van de Russische agressie. De oorlogszuchtige oostelijke buurstaat heeft de Krim geannexeerd, steunt de rebellen in het oosten van Oekraïne, voert een handelsoorlog en staakt periodiek de leverantie van aardgas, en dreigt nu met een financiële aanval. Tot nu toe is Oekraïne er op miraculeuze wijze in geslaagd deze agressie zonder veel internationale steun te pareren – maar het land is wanhopig op zoek naar hulp.

De Russische annexatie van de Krim in maart 2014 beroofde Oekraïne van 4% van zijn bbp. Sindsdien hebben door de Russen gesteunde milities gebieden in het oosten van Oekraïne bezet die in 2013 nog 10% van het bbp van het land voor hun rekening namen. Nu de productie van de Donbas-regio in de maanden daarna met 70% is gedaald, heeft dit Oekraïne zo'n 7% van zijn bbp van 2013 gekost.

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