Pro Russia rally St Basil Cathedral Anna Sergeeva/ZumaPress

Razones por las que no dan resultado las sanciones a Rusia

MOSCÚ – La actitud occidental para con Rusia se basa en la suposición de que una presión continua sobre ese país obligará al régimen del Presidente Vladimir Putin a hacer concesiones o incluso provocará su desplome. Nada podría estar más alejado de la verdad.

La suposición subyacente a la eficacia de las sanciones occidentales es la de que el profundo deterioro económico resultante de ellas volverá al público ruso, en particular la minoría selecta política y financiera, contra el Kremlin. Putin no podrá soportar la disensión en aumento de las zonas urbanas acomodadas y la incipiente clase media.

Entretanto, según esa concepción, la presión militar –en forma de un posible ayuda letal a Ucrania– inmovilizará igualmente a los rusos de a pie contra Putin. Reacios a ver morir a sus hijos en Donbas, formarán un movimiento antibélico que lo obligará a contener sus ambiciones territoriales. Presionado desde arriba y desde abajo a un tiempo, el Kremlin tendrá que cambiar de políticas y tal vez comenzar incluso a democratizarse.

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