El choque de Rusia con el Islam se debilita

Mientras el llamado "choque de civilizaciones" entre el Islam y Occidente concentra la atención mundial, la guerra rusa en Chechenia frecuentemente ha sido considerada como uno de los frentes principales de esa batalla. Por ello es digno de notar que, a medida que la invasión de Iraq encabezada por los EU, y con ella, el choque de ese país con el mundo islámico se hace más intenso, la batalla de Rusia con los musulmanes chechenos podría estar disminuyendo hacia algo parecido a la paz.

El reciente referendum en Chechenia sobre una nueva constitución coincidió con el inicio de la guerra en Iraq. El resultado fue mejor de lo que nadie en el Kremlin podría haber esperado: 89% del electorado checheno acudió a las urnas, y el 96% de los votantes apoyaron la constitución redactada por Moscú. Estas cifras sorprendieron incluso al presidente Vladimir Putin. En una junta de gabinete después de la votación sugirió abiertamente que sus funcionarios tal vez fueron un poco demasiado "proactivos" al lograr resultados tan aplastantes.

¿Como debemos interpretar este "Sí" de la población chechena? Las cifras hablan por sí solas. Por supuesto que hubo manipulación del voto. Pero aunque los funcionarios hubieran falsificado 10%, 20% o incluso 30% de los sufragios (y nadie sugiere que haya habido ese nivel de fraude) el voto en favor de la constitución seguiría representando una avasalladora mayoría de la población de Chechenia. Incluso si se restan los votos emitidos por soldados rusos (5% del total), la mayoría de quienes participaron en la votación apoyan la permanencia de Chechenia en Rusia.

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