La implosión de la población de Rusia

Hace años, Alexander Solzhenitsin acuñó la frase “preservación del pueblo”, queriendo significar la supervivencia cultural de Rusia. Hoy en día, esto se aplica a Rusia de manera mucho más literal.

Aunque soy físico de profesión, comencé a estudiar demografía hace cerca de 15 años, con la convicción de que el problema clave del planeta no era tanto la amenaza de la aniquilación nuclear sino la dinámica del crecimiento de la población. Fue amargo comprobar que Rusia enfrenta el problema opuesto: un rápido declive poblacional que amenaza cada aspecto de la vida nacional.

En efecto, sólo en los últimos diez años la población rusa ha disminuido en 9,5 millones de personas, a pesar de los muchos miles de rusos que han regresado de las ex repúblicas soviéticas. El índice de natalidad ha aumentado un poco desde el año 2000 y ahora es de cerca de 1,5 millones por año, pero esto está todavía entre 700.000 y 800,000 por debajo del índice de reemplazo.

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