Russlands unvermeidliche Demokratisierung

MOSKAU: Vor 20 Jahren trat der sowjetische Präsident Michail Gorbatschow zurück; die Sowjetunion endete, und Russland begann seine unvollständige Verwandlung hin zum demokratischen Kapitalismus – ein Wandel, der sich als viel schwieriger erwies als erwartet. Und doch geben die jüngsten Proteste (die in gewisser Weise jenen ähneln, die dem Ende der Sowjetunion vorweggingen) Anlass zu vorsichtigem Optimismus, was die Zukunft angeht.

Welche Lehren können wir also aus den Erfolgen und Fehlschlägen der letzten 20 Jahre des postsowjetischen Wandels in Russland ziehen? Und was wird die Zukunft bringen?

Die erste Lehre ist, dass Marktwettbewerb, eine verantwortliche makroökonomische Politik und privates Unternehmertum im Allgemeinen funktionieren. Die Marktreformen führten letztlich zu im historischen Vergleich hohen Wachstumsraten. Obwohl hohe Rohstoffpreise dabei mitspielten: Den am schnellsten wachsenden Teil der postkommunistischer Volkswirtschaft Russlands bildeten privatisierte und neue Unternehmen, und die Regierung spielte eine wichtige Rolle, indem sie für gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilität und einen ausgeglichenen Haushalt sorgte und die Öleinnahmen nutzte, um erhebliche Devisenreserven aufzubauen.

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