L’inévitable démocratisation de la Russie

MOSCOU – Il y a vingt ans, Mikhaïl Gorbatchev démissionnait de son poste de président, l’Union Soviétique disparaissait, et une transition imparfaite vers le capitalisme démocratique débutait en Russie – une transition qui s’est avérée bien plus délicate que prévu. Et pourtant, les manifestations récentes – assez similaires à celles qui avaient précédé la fin de l’Union Soviétique – permettent d’envisager l’avenir avec un optimisme prudent.

Quelles leçons peut-on donc tirer des succès et des échecs de la Russie durant ces vingt dernières années de transition post-soviétique ? Et quel sera son avenir ?

La première leçon est que, globalement, la concurrence des marchés, une politique macroéconomique responsable, et l’entreprenariat privé fonctionnent. Les réformes des marchés sont parvenues à produire des taux de croissance historiquement élevés. Les prix forts des matières premières ont joué leur rôle, mais ce sont les entreprises, tant nouvelles que privatisées, qui ont connu le plus fort développement dans l’économie de la Russie post-soviétique ; et le gouvernement a aussi joué un rôle important en assurant la stabilité macroéconomique, l’équilibre budgétaire, et en utilisant les revenus du pétrole pour créer des réserves de devises étrangères importantes.

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