El gran juego de Rusia con el gas

BERLÍN – Rusia y la Unión Europea son vecinos geopolíticos. Que la relación sea o no, en realidad, de buena vecindad, en lugar de tensa y controvertida, reviste importancia decisiva para ambos.

A no ser que modernice su economía y su sociedad, Rusia puede olvidarse de su aspiración a la condición de potencia mundial en el siglo XXI y seguirá a la zaga tanto de las antiguas potencias como de las potencias en ascenso. Además, Rusia necesita socios para su modernización, porque su población y su potencial económico son demasiado pequeños para que desempeñe por sí misma un papel importante en el nuevo orden mundial que está surgiendo. Las armas nucleares estratégicas de Rusia serán insuficientes para garantizarle un puesto entre las potencias de primera fila.

Pero, ¿hacia dónde puede volverse Rusia? ¿Hacia el Asia oriental? ¿Hacia el Sur y el mundo islámico? Ninguna de esas opciones es válida. Así las cosas, Rusia sólo puede volverse hacia Occidente y hacia Europa en particular.

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