L'Europe, la Russie, et le gaz

BERLIN – La Russie et l'UE sont des voisins géopolitiques. La nature de leur relation - de bon voisinage ou tendue, voire agressive - est d'une importance primordiale tant pour l'une que pour l'autre.

Si elle ne modernise pas son économie et sa société, la Russie peut dire adieu à son ambition de devenir une grande puissance du 21° siècle. Elle restera à la traîne, derrière les grandes puissances établies et les pouvoirs émergeants. Par ailleurs elle a besoin de partenaires pour se moderniser, car sa population et son potentiel économique sont insuffisants pour lui permettre de jouer un rôle important par elle-même dans le nouvel ordre mondial qui émerge. Mais vers qui peut-elle se tourner ? Vers l'Asie de l'Est ? Vers le sud et le monde musulman ? Ni l'un ni l'autre ne convient. Aussi ne peut-elle se tourner que vers l'Occident, et en particulier l'Europe.

Pour cette dernière, le positionnement de la Russie est d'une grande importance stratégique. Même un modeste retour en arrière de l'ordre post-soviétique qui se traduirait par une mainmise plus prononcée de la Russie sur les anciens Etats soviétiques ou sur ses satellites changerait radicalement la stratégie et la politique de sécurité européenne.

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