El futuro de Rusia y Occidente

Rusia busca nuevamente ejercer el papel de potencia global y, por lo tanto, está haciendo alarde de su fuerza. Las señales de cambio en la política exterior rusa se han estado incrementando desde que el presidente Vladimir Putin pronunció un discurso hostil en Munich en febrero pasado.

Desde entonces, Rusia plantó su bandera en el lecho marino debajo del Polo Norte para demostrar su reivindicación del Artico y sus recursos naturales; anunció su intención de construir su propio sistema de defensa misilístico y profirió repetidas amenazas contra Europa por el plan de desplegar un pequeño sistema de defensa norteamericano; hizo estallar un misil o bomba en Georgia como una señal de advertencia para el gobierno de Tbilisi y sus amigos occidentales; puso en jaque a la base militar de Estados Unidos en la isla de Guam en el Pacífico con aviones de vigilancia; bloqueó una decisión sobre la situación final de Kosovo en el Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas; y lanzó un ataque de intruso contra los sistemas informáticos de Estonia. Asimismo, cada invierno surge una repetida amenaza de "problemas" con los suministros de petróleo y gas a Europa.

Obviamente, los elevados precios del petróleo y del gas, el debilitamiento global autoinfligido de Estados Unidos debido a su desventura en Irak y el ascenso de China y de la India instaron a Moscú a modificar su política exterior. Sin embargo, nada de esto representa un cambio esencial en la estrategia de Rusia, porque Rusia sigue adhiriendo a su decisión fundamental, tomada a principios de los años 1990, de abrirse a Occidente. Aún así, el estilo de la política rusa ha pasado de la cooperación a la confrontación. Y, como demuestra la historia, un cambio de estilo en política exterior rápidamente puede conducir a un cambio de estrategia.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable

    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.