俄国的未来和西方

俄国再一次寻求发挥全球性的作用,因此正在展示实力。自从普京总统今年二月在慕尼黑发表了一次对抗性的讲话以来,俄国外交政策改变的迹象就日益显现。

从那时以来,俄国在北极以下的海床上树立了国旗来显示其对北极及其自然资源的主权。它宣布打算建立自己的导弹防御系统并且由于欧洲计划部署小型的美国防御系统而对其不断发出警告。它在格鲁吉亚爆炸了一枚“偏离方向”的导弹,警告第比利斯政府及其西方盟友。它用侦察飞机监视美国在太平洋岛屿关岛上的军事基地。它在联合国安理会阻挠了有关科索沃最终地位问题的决议。它还针对立陶宛的计算机系统发动了黑客攻击。此外,向欧洲输送石油和天然气每年冬天都会重复出现“问题”。

居高不下的石油和天然气价格、美国由于在伊拉克困难重重而自己造成在全球势力的削弱以及中国和印度的崛起等因素明显地促使莫斯科改变其外交政策。但是,由于俄国继续坚持其在九十年代早期做出的国策,也就是向西方开放,因此所有这些都并不构成俄国战略上的根本性变化。然而,俄国政治的风格已经从合作转化为对抗。而且,正如历史所揭示的那样,外交政策风格上的改变可能会迅速地导致战略上的改变。

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