Russlands zerbrechliche Macht

Heuer entsandte Russland eine beeindruckende Delegation zum Weltwirtschaftsforum nach Davos. Nachdem man dort in der Ära Boris Jelzin hochkarätig vertreten war, kamen die russischen Teilnehmer nach der Amtsübernahme von Wladimir Putin eher aus der zweiten Reihe. Heuer allerdings entsandte man die erste Garde und bei einer gut besuchten Veranstaltung ging es um „Russlands offensivere Außenpolitik“.

Aufgrund der hohen Energiepreise genießen viele russische Regierungsvertreter ihre wieder gewonnene Macht. Bei einem Abendessen mit höchsten Vertretern der Regierung und des Energieriesen Gazprom war ich eingeladen, über die Beziehungen zwischen den USA und Russland zu sprechen. Ich führte aus, dass sich Amerika und Europa in den 1990er Jahren zu vielen Illusionen hinsichtlich der Demokratie in Russland hingaben und sich momentan in einer Phase der Ernüchterung befänden. Es herrschen Bedenken im Hinblick auf Russlands Zukunft, darüber, wie es seine wieder gewonnene Macht einsetzen wird und wie der Westen darauf reagieren sollte.

Eine Möglichkeit ist, die russische Politik als Pendel zu betrachten. Während es unter Jelzin zu weit in Richtung Chaos ausschlug, schwingt es nun unter Putin zu weit in Richtung Disziplin und staatliche Kontrolle. Bis zum Stalinismus hat der Ausschlag nicht gereicht, Zarismus wäre wohl die passendere historische Metapher. Beobachter diskutieren nun, ob das Pendel letztendlich wieder in die Mitte zurückkehren wird.

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