俄罗斯脆弱的势力

俄罗斯派了一个庞大的代表团出席了今年在达沃斯召开的世界经济年会。在叶利钦时期高级别的与会后,俄罗斯与会代表的级别在普京就任总统后被降低了很多。但是今年俄罗斯派出了一个最高级、并且代表成员众多的代表团以显示“俄罗斯更加强悍的外交政策”。

随着能源价格变得越来越高,许多俄罗斯官员正享受着他们重新获取的势力。在一次与来自政府和大型的能源公司俄罗斯天然气公司的高级官员的晚宴上,我被问及如何看待俄美关系。我说,在二十世纪九十年代的时候美国和欧洲对俄罗斯的民主抱有太多幻想,而现在它们正处于一个幻想破灭的时期。人们对俄罗斯的未来表示担忧,关心它将如何运用其新发现的势力,而西方国家又将作何回应。

一种观点认为俄罗斯政治就像一个钟摆。在叶利钦时期它朝混乱的方向摆得太远了,而在普京统治下它又向秩序和国家控制的方向摆得太远了。它并没有摆回到斯大林主义;就历史上看也许更像是沙皇的统治。观察家们争论着它是否会最终达到一个新的平衡。

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