La eterna inflación de Rusia

En la Rusia eterna, nada cambia en materia de gestión monetaria. Año tras año, el Banco Central Ruso (BCR) culpa al tiempo, a la mala cosecha o a otros factores no monetarios de su deficiente actuación para reducir la tasa de inflación.

A diferencia de muchas economías de mercado en ascenso y en transición en el decenio de 1990, Rusia no abandonó el sostén del tipo de cambio fijo en pro de un régimen encaminado a reducir la inflación como guía para su política monetaria. A consecuencia de ello, el período que se inició a partir de la crisis financiera de 1998 ha creado graves problemas para las políticas monetaria y de tipos de cambio. Al encontrarse con un superávit de la balanza de pagos –gracias en gran medida a los precios del petróleo–, el “programa monetario” del BCR para 2005 se sale por la tangente: la reducción de la inflación es una prioridad, pero también lo es la de no olvidar los tipos de cambio para apoyar el crecimiento.

Ese planteamiento más activo que reflexivo da buenos resultados en los Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, donde la Reserva Federal se ha granjeado la credibilidad antiinflacionista, pero la ejecutoria del BCR desde 1992 ha hecho poco para estabilizar las perspectivas de inflación y convencer a los empresarios, inversores, funcionarios estatales y rusos comunes y corrientes de que está centrando su actuación de verdad en la tarea de frenar el aumento de los precios.

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