L’Éternelle inflation russe

Fidèle à sa tradition, la Russie ne change pas quand il est question de gestion monétaire. Année après année, la Banque centrale russe (BCR) accuse le climat, les mauvaises récoltes ou d’autres facteurs monétaires d’être responsables de ses pauvres résultats dans la lutte pour réduire le taux d’inflation.

Contrairement à de nombreux marchés émergeants et aux économies en transition des années 1990, la Russie n’a pas abandonné son système de parité fixe au profit d’un régime ciblant l’inflation comme axe directionnel de sa politique monétaire. Ainsi, depuis la crise financière de 1998, de sérieux problèmes monétaires et de politiques de taux de change se sont posés. Avec son excédent de la balance des paiements – principalement grâce à la flambée des prix du pétrole – le Programme monétaire 2005 de la BCR se dérobe : la réduction de l’inflation est une priorité, mais il en va de même avec le ciblage des taux de change pour soutenir la croissance.

Cette approche « ric-rac » fonctionne à merveille aux États-Unis, par exemple, où la Réserve fédérale jouit d’une réputation anti-inflationniste bien ancrée. Mais, la tradition en vogue à la BCR depuis 1992 n’a pas vraiment permis de stabiliser l’inflation, ni de persuader les hommes d’affaires, les investisseurs, les représentants du gouvernement et le citoyen ordinaire russes qu’elle s’attachait véritablement à la maîtrise de la croissance des prix.

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