俄罗斯无休无止的通货膨胀

俄罗斯的货币管理亘古不变。年复一年,俄罗斯中央银行(RCB)把它在降低通货膨胀率方面虚软无力的表现归咎于天气、收成不好以及其他非货币因素。

不同于上世纪90年代的许多新兴市场和过渡经济体,俄罗斯并没有为了通胀目标化政策而放弃固定汇率作为货币政策的导向。结果,从1998年金融危机以来的这段时期,货币和汇率政策遇到了严重的问题。面对国际收支顺差——主要是依靠高油价,RCB在2005年的《货币计划》中呓语道:为了促进增长,降低通胀是首要任务,但汇率目标化也是。

这种“不管三七二十一”的做法在例如美国等地是行得通的,因为美联储已经建立起自己的反通胀信用。但是RCB从1992年以来的表现很难稳定人们对通胀的预期,难以让商人、投资者、政府官员和普通俄罗斯民众相信它的确在努力控制物价增涨。

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