Russlands nahendes Finanzdesaster

WASHINGTON, DC – Zurzeit wird die ganze Welt von einer großen Finanzkrise erfasst, aber Russland steht ein wahres Unwetter bevor. Die russische Börse befindet sich im freien Fall und fiel seit dem 19. Mai um 60 %, ein Verlust von $ 900 Milliarden. Und der Absturz gewinnt an Fahrt. In der Folge ist es wahrscheinlich, dass Russlands Wirtschaftswachstum deutlich und plötzlich zurückgehen wird.

Ein Problem besteht darin, dass die russische Regierung nach einer langen Zeit der finanziellen Umsicht außergewöhnliche Unfähigkeit an den Tag legt. Russland genießt seit 1999 ein durchschnittliches jährliches Wirtschaftswachstum von 7 %. Mit großen Leistungsbilanz- und Haushaltsüberschüssen hatte es im Juli internationale Reserven in Höhe von $ 600 Milliarden angehäuft. Seine Staatsverschuldung war nahezu getilgt. Doch braucht die offene Wirtschaft, die Russlands wirtschaftlichen Erfolg befördert hat, die Unterstützung durch eine sinnvolle Politik, um erfolgreich zu sein.

Die anfängliche amerikanische Finanzkrise hat Russland kaum berührt, doch führte der globale Konjunkturrückgang zu einer Senkung der Öl- und anderer Rohstoffpreise um über ein Drittel seit Juli, was ein herber Schlag war. Alle anderen Schläge hat es sich jedoch selbst zugefügt. Die russische Finanzkrise bietet pure Dramatik, die am besten als Tragödie in fünf Akten beschrieben wird.

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