Russie : le crash financier est pour demain

WASHINGTON –Le monde entier est secoué par une terrible crise financière, mais pour la Russie c'est une véritable tempête. La Bourse russe est en chute libre, elle a dégringolé de 60% depuis le 19 mai, ce qui représente une perte de 900 milliards de dollars. Et la chute s'accélère. Aussi, le taux de croissance de l'économie russe va-t-il probablement chuter à son tour.

L'une des raisons en est l'inconscience extraordinaire dont a fait preuve le gouvernement russe après une longue période de prudence budgétaire. La Russie bénéficie d'un taux de croissance moyen de 7% depuis 1999.  Avec un énorme surplus des comptes courants et un budget largement excédentaire, en  juillet ses réserves avaient atteint 600 milliards de dollars ; elle n'était pratiquement plus endettée. Mais l'ouverture économique sur laquelle repose son succès économique suppose une politique adaptée.

Au début, la crise financière américaine ne l'a guère affectée, mais le ralentissement économique mondial a provoqué une baisse du prix du pétrole et d'autres matières premières de plus de 33% depuis juillet, un rude coup pour la Russie. Mais tous les autres coups durs, la Russie se les ait infligés elle-même. La crise financière russe est une tragédie, une tragédie en cinq actes.

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