El "Gran Juego" de Rusia en Irak e Irán

Rusia se está acercando al centro del estrado a medida que se intensifica el debate en Estados Unidos acerca del derrocamiento de Saddam Hussein. Esta semana Rusia firmó un tratado de cooperación económica y comercial por $40 mil millones con Irak al tiempo que se reunió con los líderes iraníes para discutir la no proliferación de armas nucleares. Christopher Granville, exdiplomático británico y ahora jefe estratégico del United Financial Group, un banco ruso de inversión, analiza los intereses de largo plazo de Rusia y su posible línea de acción.

No parece que haya ningún país capaz de alterar los cálculos militares de la administración de Bush en cuanto a Irak, pero Rusia sí representa una combinación de serios intereses en la región con una capacidad militar marginalmente significativa. Pero la verdadera importancia de Rusia en cualquier posible guerra entre Estados Unidos (EEUU) e Irak no se relaciona tanto con su poder militar residual como con la forma en la que su postura afecta no sólo al problema irakí, sino también a ese otro miembro del "eje del mal": Irán.

Hasta ahora, la característica más sorprendente de la manera en la que la administración de Putin ha manejado la situación EEUU-Irak, es su silencio. Si se ven forzados a dar su punto de vista, los diplomáticos rusos se apegan a una línea estandard acerca de la implementación de las resoluciones del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU y de la necesidad de que el Consejo de Seguridad apruebe cualquier nueva acción contra Irak. A diferencia de otros países líderes de Europa Occidental, el presidente Putin y su gobierno prefieren mantener la mirada baja, reflejando su deseo de nutrir el nuevo y todavía frágil reacercamiento de Rusia con EEUU.

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