Moscow Marco Bicci/EyeEm

Wederzijds verzekerde afschrikking

MOSKOU – De achteruitgang van het bestuur binnen het internationale systeem is vandaag de dag een zeer actueel onderwerp – en om goede redenen. De fundamenten van de op regels gebaseerde wereld brokkelen af, en basale normen van internationaal gedrag en beschaving zijn in verval. Op grond van vrijwel iedere definitie lijken we in een gevaarlijke wereld te leven, waarin op elk moment een oorlog kan uitbreken.

De betrekkingen tussen Rusland en de Europese Unie, en tussen Rusland en de nauwe bondgenoot van de EU, de Verenigde Staten, worden steeds fragieler. Er zijn pogingen ondernomen om de verschuivende machtsdynamiek in Europa aan te pakken door de militair-politieke scheidslijn tussen de NAVO en Rusland te herstellen – alleen ditmaal zo'n 965 kilometer oostelijk van waar die scheidslijn tijdens de Koude Oorlog lag. Maar die benadering heeft weer voor nieuwe gevaren gezorgd, vooral gezien de fragiliteit van de EU zelf, en zal waarschijnlijk niet slagen.

In bredere zin is de unipolaire wereldorde, met de VS als onbetwiste leider, aan het wegkwijnen. Die orde was uiteraard verre van perfect. Integendeel, zij was een bron van grootschalige wanorde, niet in de laatste plaats door de Amerikaanse steun voor regime-verandering in verre en nabije landen. De toenemende chaos in het Midden-Oosten toont de tekortkomingen van deze benadering aan.

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