President of Russia, Vladimir Putin Prensa Internacional via ZUMA Wire

Putins neue Besonnenheit

WASHINGTON, DC – In diesem Jahr ist die russische Wirtschaft innerhalb der G-20 das Schlusslicht. Laut der jüngsten Prognose des Internationalen Währungsfonds wird sie um 3,8% schrumpfen. Und die Dinge hätten leicht noch schlimmer kommen können. Präsident Wladimir Putin behauptet, seine Wirtschaftspolitik sei stetig, aber in Wirklichkeit hat er klugerweise einen Kurswechsel vollzogen und damit den größten Schaden begrenzt.

Ende 2014 stand Russland unter finanzieller Panik. Die russische Zentralbank (ZBR) reagierte auf die kollabierenden Ölpreise mit einer Rubelschwemme, und die Währung verlor schnell die Hälfte ihres Wertes. Verzweifelte Russen kauften, was sie konnten, bevor ihr Geld wertlos wurde. Die Inflation stieg auf 16%.

Putins Mittel dagegen – das er im letzten Dezember auf seiner jährlichen Pressekonferenz ankündigte – war nicht sehr beruhigend: „Wir werden die gleichen Maßnahmen treffen, die schon 2008 erfolgreich waren.“ Er bezog sich dabei auf die russische Reaktion auf die Finanzkrise, als das Land den größten Haushaltsstimulus der gesamten G-20 einsetzte – nicht weniger als 10% des BIP. Das Ergebnis: Das BIP sank um 7,8%, der größte Rückgang innerhalb der G-20. Also versprach Putin letztlich, eine gescheiterte Politik zu wiederholen.

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