Русская Угроза Остается Без Топлива

БРЮССЕЛЬ - Для Европы, определяющим событием 2014 года, было присоединение Крыма к России и военная интервенция в регионe Донбасса на Восточной Украине. Действия Кремля - это прямой вызов ключевым принципам, которыми мы руководствовались в Европе в течение более шести десятилетий, в частности, отказ от применения силы для изменения национальных границ. Но Россия не в состоянии сдерживать свою агрессивную внешнюю политику.

Аргументом было то, что Россия восприняла и среагировала как посягательство со стороны Европейского Союза и НАТО на ее “ближнее зарубежье”. Но история показывает более простое объяснение: десятилетие неуклонно растущих цен на нефть, придало смелости России, предоставив ей использовать любую возможность для развертывания своей военной мощи.

Действительно, Советский Союз имел подобный опыт 40 лет назад, когда затяжной период роста нефтяных доходов питал все более жесткую внешнюю политику, которая завершилась в 1979 вторжением в Афганистан. Цены на нефть росли четыре раза, после первого нефтяного эмбарго в 1973 году, а открытие больших запасов в 1970 году поспособствовало значительному увеличению советской продукции. В результате, с 1965 по 1980 года, стоимость советского производства нефти взлетела на коэффициент почти 20.

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