La minaccia russa perde vigore

BRUSSELS – Per l’Europa, l’evento che ha caratterizzato il 2014 è stato l’annessione della Crimea alla Russia e l’intervento militare nella regione di Donbas, a est dell’Ucraina. Le azioni del Cremlino hanno sfidato direttamente i princìpi che hanno guidato l’Europa per oltre sessant’anni, in particolare la rinuncia all’uso della forza per modificare i confini nazionali. Tuttavia la Russia non è nella condizione di appoggiare la sua aggressiva politica estera.

Alcuni hanno sostenuto spesso che la Russia stava reagendo all’invasione del suo “vicino estero” messa in atto dall’Unione Europea e dalla Nato. Ma la storia suggerisce una spiegazione più semplice: un decennio caratterizzato da un costante aumento dei prezzi del petrolio aveva incoraggiato la Russia a cogliere ogni opportunità per schierare le sue truppe militari.

In realtà, l’Unione sovietica ha vissuto un’esperienza simile 40 anni fa, quando un prolungato periodo di aumento dei ricavi da petrolio ha stimolato l’adozione di una politica estera sempre più assertiva, che ha raggiunto il culmine nell’invasione dell’Afghanistan nel 1979. I prezzi del petrolio sono quadruplicati in seguito al primo embargo sul petrolio nel 1973 e la scoperta di ampie riserve negli anni ’70 ha sostenuto un massiccio aumento della produzione sovietica. Di conseguenza, dal 1965 al 1980, il valore della produzione petrolifera sovietica è aumentato di quasi venti volte.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/oANGrOn/it;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.