Ruské hrozbě dochází palivo

BRUSEL – Určující událostí roku 2014 byla pro Evropu anexe Krymu Ruskem a jeho vojenská intervence do donbaské oblasti na východě Ukrajiny. Počínání Kremlu bylo v přímém rozporu s klíčovými principy, jimiž se Evropa více než šedesát let řídila, zejména se zřeknutím se snahy měnit státní hranice s použitím síly. Rusko však není v situaci, kdy by mohlo svou agresivní zahraniční politiku udržet.

Často se tvrdí, že Rusko reagovalo na vnímané zásahy Evropské unie a NATO v jeho „blízkém zahraničí“. Dějiny však nabízejí jednodušší vysvětlení: Desetiletí setrvale stoupajících cen ropy Rusko osmělilo a vyvolalo v něm ochotu využít jakékoliv příležitosti k nasazení vojenské síly.

Podobnou zkušenost udělal Sovětský svaz před čtyřiceti lety, kdy dlouhé období stoupajících příjmů z prodeje ropy podnítilo jeho stále asertivnější zahraniční politiku, která vyvrcholila v roce 1979 invazí do Afghánistánu. Po prvním ropném embargu z roku 1973 se ceny ropy vyšplhaly na čtyřnásobek původní hodnoty a objevení rozsáhlých zásob v 70. letech se zasloužilo o prudký růst sovětské těžby. V důsledku toho se hodnota sovětské ropné produkce zvýšila v letech 1965 až 1980 téměř dvacetinásobně.

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