نفاذ وقود التهديد الروسي

بروكسل – بالنسبة لاوروبا فإن الحدث البارز لسنة 2014 كان ضم روسيا لشبه جزيرة القرم والتدخل العسكري في منطقة دونباس في شرق اوكرانيا . ان افعال الكرملين تشكل تحدي مباشر للمبادىء الرئيسه والتي وجهت اوروبا لأكثر من ستة عقود وخاصة استنكار استخدام العنف في تعديل الحدود الوطنيه ولكن روسيا ليست في وضع يؤهلها لاستدامة سياستها الخارجيه العدائيه.

كثيرا ما قيل ان روسيا كانت ترد على ما تعتقد انه انتهاك لجمهوريات الاتحاد السوفياتي السابق من قبل الاتحاد الاوروبي والناتو ولكن التاريخ يعطينا توضيح اكثر بساطه : ان عقد من اسعار النفط المتصاعده باضطراد قد جعل روسيا اكثر جرأة وجعلها جاهزة لاستغلال اية فرصة لاستخدام قوتها العسكريه.

لقد كان للاتحاد السوفياتي تجربه مماثله قبل اربعين عام عندما اشعلت فترة مطولة من ايرادات النفط المتصاعدة سياسه خارجيه اكثر حزما والتي بلغت اوجها في غزو افغانستان سنة 1979 . لقد زادت اسعار النفط بمقدار اربعة اضعاف منذ اول حظر نفطي سنة 1973 كما ان الزيادة الضخمة في الانتاج السوفياتي ارتكز على اكتشاف احتياطات كبيره في السبعينات وكنتيجة لذلك من 1965 وحتى سة 1980 فإن قيمة انتاج النفط السوفياتي ارتفعت بمعامل 20 تقريبا.

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