De la Guerra Fría al trato frío

TIFLIS – La crisis de Ucrania desbarató los supuestos fundamentales de Occidente respecto de Rusia, y muchos analistas y políticos optaron por creer que el presidente ruso Vladímir Putin actúa irracionalmente. Pero lo que hay que cuestionar son los supuestos occidentales. En particular, ¿por qué Rusia se lanzó tan decididamente a perturbar el orden internacional, primero en Georgia en 2008 y ahora en Ucrania?

A primera vista, ambas campañas parecen conflictos territoriales postimperiales. Según esta imagen, como Rusia sabe que no puede recuperar el antiguo imperio, optó en cambio por arrebatar a sus vecinos porciones de territorio, con un nebuloso concepto de justicia étnica e histórica como justificación. Y lo mismo que el ex presidente serbio Slobodan Milošević, Putin disfraza de salvación nacional la agresión externa, a fin de reforzar su popularidad interna y marginalizar a sus opositores.

El método de Putin se parece mucho a las ideas que expuso el premio Nobel ruso Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn en su ensayo de 1990 “Cómo reorganizar Rusia”. En relación con los antiguos estados satélites de la Unión Soviética, el autor sugiere permitir la separación de esos “pueblos ingratos”, pero conservando territorios a los que Rusia tuviera derecho, como el este y sur de Ucrania, el norte de Kazajistán y el este de Estonia, con sus poblaciones étnicas rusas, y las regiones georgianas de Abjasia y Osetia del Sur, extensiones culturales del Cáucaso septentrional ruso.

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