让俄罗斯做俄罗斯

特拉维夫—在1947年出版的名作《X》中,乔治·凯南(George F. Kennan)指出,苏联对美国的敌意基本上是不可抑制的,因为其根源不仅有超级大国之间的经典利益冲突,也包括根深蒂固的民族主义和不安全感。目前普京的俄罗斯与西方的冲突也是如此:根本上,这是一场西方持有的普世价值与俄罗斯所追求的独特身份之间的碰撞。

一国的身份斗争可以左右它的战略行为。美国文明中的传教士精神有助于解释它身为全球超级大国的行为。伊斯兰教的重新崛起本质上是被现代性挑战压制的古老文明对实现身份的追求。以色列对其犹太身份的强调也成为与其与巴勒斯坦实现和平的可怕障碍。

普京的挑衅性外交政策是对帝国耻辱性损失的反应——中间的媒介则是极权政治传统、东正教反动原则以及对俄罗斯广袤领土和充裕自然财富的骄傲。普京将俄罗斯在冷战中的战败视为颂扬俄罗斯历史和传统中的非西方根基的需要,他实际上是在倒向1812年挫败了彼得大帝现代化大计的拿破仑入侵所引起的保守价值。

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