La nouvelle orientation de la politique étrangère russe

MOSCOU – Des soldats de l’Otan défilant lors des commémorations du 8 mai 1945 sur la Place rouge, Moscou acceptant une solution de compromis dans le conflit territorial l’opposant à la Norvège depuis 40 ans, le Premier ministre Vladimir Poutine s’agenouillant devant le mémorial de Katyn, lieu du massacre de milliers d'officiers polonais par la police politique de Staline : autant d’aperçus d’une Russie qu’un journal européen a qualifié de plus affable et accommodante. Mais trois questions viennent immédiatement à l’esprit : Ce changement est-il réel ? Pourquoi intervient-il ? Et comment répondre à la nouvelle politique étrangère de la Russie ?

Dans le cas actuel, les apparences ne sont pas trompeuses. L’attitude de la Russie, en particulier à l’égard des Etats-Unis, a commencé à changer dans le courant de l’année dernière, mais c’est le soutien du Kremlin à une quatrième résolution du Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies sur des sanctions contre l’Iran qui a prouvé qu’aujourd’hui, la Russie entend donner une nouvelle orientation à sa politique étrangère. Les concessions territoriales faites par la Russie dans l’Arctique, l’enjeu du différent qui l’opposait à la Norvège, étaient également un  geste significatif.

La visite de Poutine à Katyn en avril en compagnie de son homologue polonais Donald Tusk était bien sûr avant tout symbolique. Mais des discussions sérieuses avaient été entamées par les deux dirigeants en septembre dernier lors de la visite de Poutine à Gdansk pour commémorer le 70e anniversaire du début de la Seconde guerre mondiale. Et trois jours après l’agenouillement symbolique de Poutine, les experts russes se sont empressés de déterminer les causes de l’accident d’avion dans lequel ont péri le président polonais Lech Kaczynski et de nombreux hauts responsables polonais, tandis que les autorités russes rendaient hommage aux victimes.

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