Las consecuencias mundiales del aislamiento de Rusia

PRINCETON – La crisis actual de Rusia, en particular el desplome del rublo, revela la fragilidad no sólo de la economía rusa, sino también del orden internacional vigente y de los fundamentos del pensamiento contemporáneo sobre la sostenibilidad económica y política. De hecho, la crisis de Rusia nunca debería haber ocurrido y su aislamiento cada vez mayor la priva de gran parte de su influencia en los mecanismos vigentes de gestión de los asuntos públicos mundiales.

Después de la crisis de deuda de Latinoamérica en el decenio de 1980 y la crisis financiera asiática en el periodo 1997-98 (que también afectó a Rusia), las economías en ascenso estaban decididas a encontrar la forma de evitar la repetición de esa experiencia. Determinaron tres claves para abordar los peligros de la mundialización financiera moderna: un gran margen de reservas para evitar los ataques especulativos; evitar los grandes déficits por cuenta corriente (y utilizar los superávits para acumular reservas); y una escasa deuda exterior y privada.

Además, las economías en ascenso aprovecharon las enseñanzas en materia de gestión de los asuntos públicos, al reconocer el imperativo de mejorar la transparencia y reducir la corrupción, y las autoridades de las entidades financieras dedicaron considerable atención a determinar cuáles podrían ser unos indicadores de alerta.

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