Die globalen Konsequenzen der Isolation Russlands

PRINCETON – Die aktuelle Krise in Russland, insbesondere der Verfall des Rubels, offenbart nicht nur die Fragilität der russischen Wirtschaft, sondern auch der bestehenden internationalen Ordnung und der Grundlagen des zeitgenössischen Denkens über wirtschaftliche und politische Nachhaltigkeit. Die Krise in Russland hätte nie eintreten sollen – und durch seine zunehmende Isolation hat es kaum Anteil an bestehenden Mechanismen der Global Governance.

Nach der Schuldenkrise der 1980er-Jahre in Lateinamerika und der Asienkrise der Jahre 1997-98 (von der auch Russland betroffen war), waren Schwellenländer entschlossen herauszufinden, wie sie es verhindern können, diese Erfahrung zu wiederholen. Sie haben drei zentrale Elemente im Umgang mit den Gefahren der modernen finanziellen Globalisierung identifiziert: ein großes Polster an Reserven, um spekulative Angriffe abzuwehren; die Vermeidung hoher Leistungsbilanzdefizite (wobei Überschüsse zur Bildung von Reserven verwendet werden) und eine niedrige Auslandsverschuldung und Verschuldung der Privatwirtschaft.

Außerdem haben die Schwellenländer im Bereich Governance hinzugelernt und die Notwendigkeit erkannt, für mehr Transparenz und weniger Korruption zu sorgen. Und politische Entscheidungsträger und Finanzinstitutionen haben der Frage viel Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet, was Warnhinweise sein könnten.

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