Gaidar Forum Moscow jan 2017 Valery Sharifulin/Getty Images

Плохой эквилибриум России

МОСКВА – После двух с лишним лет экономического спада Россия, кажется, достигла некоего подобия стабильности. Хотя, согласно прогнозам, экономический рост в 2017 году составит всего лишь около 1%, страхи перед экономической дестабилизацией, которые охватили страну после вторжения в Крым в 2014 году (Запад ответил на это жёсткими санкциями), практически испарились. Комбинация внешнеполитического оптимизма, бытовых удобств и внутренних репрессий оказалась достаточно мощным эликсиром.

Как и во времена Леонида Брежнева, внешняя политика затмевает внутриполитическую жизнь России. Но в отличие от той эпохи российские перспективы налаживаются. Президент США Дональд Трамп дал ясно понять, что желает улучшить отношения с Кремлём, и, как сообщается, он намерен встретиться с президентом России Владимиром Путиным в июне.

Президентские выборы во Франции, запланированные на апрель, тоже могут оказаться выгодны России. Как правоцентристский кандидат Франсуа Фийон, так и ультраправый кандидат Марин Ле Пен являются пламенными друзьями Путина. Впрочем, у центриста Эммануэля Макрона, который не входит в число этих друзей, тоже есть шансы.

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