Gaidar Forum Moscow jan 2017 Valery Sharifulin/Getty Images

Russlands schlechtes Gleichgewicht

MOSKAU – Nach mehr als zwei Jahren wirtschaftlicher Kontraktion scheint Russland zu einem Anschein von Stabilität gefunden zu haben. Obwohl für 2017 nur ein Wirtschaftswachstum von rund 1% erwartet wird, ist die Angst vor einer wirtschaftlichen Destabilisierung, die das Land nach seiner Invasion der Krim 2014 (auf die lähmende Sanktionen des Westens folgten) durchdrungen hatte, praktisch verschwunden. Die Kombination aus außenpolitischem Optimismus, der Sorge für das leibliche Wohl und innenpolitischer Repression scheint ein wirkungsstarkes Elixier zu sein.

Ganz wie zu Zeiten Leonid Breschnews überschattet die Außenpolitik die russische Innenpolitik. Anders als damals jedoch verbessen sich derzeit die Aussichten Russlands. US-Präsident Donald Trump hat seinen Wunsch klar gemacht, die Beziehungen zum Kreml zu verbessern, und wird sich Berichten zufolge im Juni mit dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin treffen.

Die für den April angesetzten Präsidentschaftswahlen in Frankreich könnten ebenfalls zugunsten Russlands ausgehen. Sowohl der Kandidat der gemäßigten Rechten, François Fillon, als auch die rechtsextreme Kandidatin Marine Le Pen sind leidenschaftliche Putin-Freunde, obwohl der Zentrist Emmanuel Macron, der das nicht ist, ebenfalls eine Chance auf den Wahlsieg hat.

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